Global premium volume growth for 2021 forecast below average
Swiss Reinsurance Co. Ltd. on Wednesday forecast global commercial lines premium volume growth of 2.8% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022, putting 2021 below the 10-year average of 3.5%.
In 2020, the commercial sector saw 1.5% premium growth to $3.490 billion driven by commercial line rate hardening, as the total global insurance premiums contracted by only 1.3%.
In the U.S. and Canada, commercial premiums grew by 1.5% while China “dominated” emerging market growth with a 4.4% gain in premiums.
Total global insurance demand will grow 3.3% in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022, as the insurance industry benefits from the robust economic recovery and the “strongest rate hardening for 20 years in non-life insurance commercial lines” after the pandemic outbreak, Swiss Re said Wednesday in its report.
The U.S., China and Japan remained the world’s top three insurance markets in 2020, accounting for almost 58% of the global market, up from 2019’s 56%. The combined market share of the 20 largest national insurance markets rose slightly to 90.7% in 2020, from 90.5% in 2019.
China’s growing share of the world’s insurance market reached 10.5% in 2020, as the “the rapidly growing Asia region is growing increasingly dominant,” Swiss Re said. “We expect emerging markets to continue to outpace advanced markets and Asia to outperform other regions, with the ongoing shift in economic power from West to East reflected in the source of global premium growth.”
Uncertainty remains, however, as to the total cost of COVID-related claims, which Swiss Re said are estimated to be some $30 billion to $60 billion.
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